Vital City charts

Author

Alex Knorre and Marcos Soler

Published

July 10, 2023

1 History

We start with NYC because for thirty years it has been an example, perhaps, of how police and the criminal justice system can have an effect. starting with Kelly (crime started to decrease in1990-1993 down 15%) and Bratton’s stunning: we can control crime in 19934 (Bratton on 1.1.1994-4.15.1996). Along with other big cities in the US, NYC suffered a stark rise in murders and shootings through the 60s, 70s and 80s, and then starting in the early 90s a precipitous decline. Unlike other cities in US, however, NYC’s decline was steeper and more durable than other places. The City reached historic lows not experienced since the early 1950s in the period from 2017-2019 with fewer than 300 murders and 800 shootings per year (and with fewer than 100,000 major felony offenses).

1.1 The long view: the current 2023 NYC murder rate is lower than any period between 1959 to 2012

In the first half of 2023, New York had an annualized murder rate (adjusted for seasonality) of 4.6 murders per 100,000. It is 21% lower than the rate of 5.8 in the height of the pandemic in 2021.

We provide a historical comparison of the murder rate in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, and the United States By murder rate, the United States on average had 1.2 times more murders than NYC. By selected cities, LA has 1.6 times more murders, Chicago had 5.1 times more murders, and Houston had 2.6 times more murders. In 1985, all these four cities had relatively similar rates around 20- 24 murders per 100,000.

1.2 The long view: the current 2023 NYC shooting rate is lower than any period prior to 2015

1.3 NYC is safer than most big cities in the nation

New York City is the third safest big city in the United States when measured by murders. NYC is substantially safer than the national average as well as most cities above 250,000 residents.

1.4 USA is not the safest country

2 Pandemic

The pandemic turned the crime story (the historic lows of 2017-2019) upside down. The US murder rate rose by 28% in 2020, from 5.1 murders per 100,000 in 2019 to 6.5 in 2020 (based on FBI UCR). It continued to rise at slower rate (6%) in 2021 to an estimated 6.9 murders per 100,000 (based on NIBRS). The homicide rate was slightly higher as reported by the CDC that estimated a 35% increase from 2019 to 2020 and estimated a high of 7.9 murders per 100,000 in 2021. CDC also calculated a moderate 4% decrease in murders in 2022.

Other reports tell a similar story. The Council on Criminal Justice examined rates in 35 selected cities. Their reports shows that homicides rose a sharp 30% in 2020 and continued to increase by 5% in 2021. However, they Council found that the number of homicides in 2022 was 4% lower than counts recorded in 2021.

Two reports tells us more about recent trends. The Violent Crime Survey of the Major Cities Chiefs Association of 70 major US cities reported that murders increased 40% from 2019 to 2020 (6,406 vs 8,994) and continued to increase 7% in 2021 (8,994 vs 9,634). Then, it noted that murders dropped 5% in 2022 (9,634 vs 9,138) and dropped 8% in the first quarter of 2023.

Jeff Asher of Asher Analytics tracks more than 90 cities. His analysis for 2023 found that murder is down about 12 percent year-to-date in 90 cities that have released data for 2023, compared with data as of the same date in 2022. Big cities tend to slightly amplify the national trend—a 5 percent decline in murder rates in big cities would likely translate to a smaller decline nationally.

A rolling average (a form of moving average) is a time series measure or metric that calculates the average of a set of data points over a 12-month period. Rolling averages are useful for finding long-term trends otherwise disguised by occasional fluctuations. In June 2021, the United States reached the highest point of the pandemic at an annualized rate of 63,000 shootings. Since then, shootings have decrease to a current annualized rate of about 58,000 shootings – still 32% higher than the average of about 44,000 shootings in 2019.

2.1 National increase in shootings

During the pandemic, shootings (firearm deaths & injuries) increased 36% nationwide. They decreased 4% in 2022 and 23% in the first half of 2023. Still 32% above 2019.

Since the implementation of the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (FBI UCR), most jurisdictions report data on murder and nonnegligent manslaughter. However, there is no national registry for shooting. Since 2014, the Gun Violence Archive (GVA) – a proprietary data aggregation tool – makes this information public.

2.2 Increase in NYC shootings

During the pandemic, NYC shootings began to increase sharply. They increased by 125% over the three-year rolling average of under 800 shootings. Shootings decreased by 17% in 2022 and by 25% in the first half of 2023. Shootings are still 27% above 2019 but decreasing fast.

In New York City, in the first year of the pandemic shootings doubled and stayed at that level in 2021 before modestly reducing in 2022 and 2023. Murders which remained steady for much of 2020 began to rise at the end of 2020 ending the year at x% above pre-pandemic levels. and rising again in 2021, before beginning to decline slightly in 2022-23

2.2.1 In NYC, the Pandemic coincided and greatly contributed to a sharp increase in shootings

In New York City, in the summer of 2020, shootings reached a level not experienced since the late 1990s. For eleven consecutive quarters, shootings were above the seasonal peak of Q12017-Q12020. A gradual return is starting to visualize.

Although fatal shootings are down for the first time since the pandemic started, murders by other means (particularly stabbings) are in upward trajectory

2.2.2 For murders, the pandemic 2020 jump reflected the biggest one-year % change in seven decades

During COVID, the NYC murder rate rose by 47% in 2020 (28% in the United States) marking the biggest year over year increase on record since the 1950s. Since 2022, the city is experiencing a return to the pre-pandemic historic lows.

2.2.3 For shootings, the 2020 jump reflected the biggest one-year % change in three decades

The 2020 NYC increase in murders was spurred a sharp upward swing in gun violence in 2020 (a 97% increase in shootings: the largest year-over-year increase in shootings) and 2021 . In 2022, gun violence began to decline steadily.

3 Where are we now and what happened

3.1 Crime

Shootings and murders have begun to drop, though still well-elevated from 2019 levels. But now a new and troubling trend has emerged: major crimes which had remained largely stable through the worst two years of the pandemic — 2020-21 — jumped up in 2022 and have seen no abatement since then.

Crime and murder are normally strongly correlated (.97) and follow the same trajectory (up, up; down, down; no consecutive years one up and the other down). However, for first time in four decades, violence is down while crime is up.

The firearm rate is derived from taking the number of violent index crimes which involve a firearm. In 2019, 9% of all violent crimes involved a firearm. By 2022, 15% of all violent crimes involved a firearm. The rate has increased 114% from 2019 to 2022. It varies greatly from the 42 firearm related crimes per 100,000 in Staten Island to the 214 in Bronx.

3.1.1 Reasons for homicides

reason	2019	2020	2021	2022
Argument	115	147	140	143
Unknown	72	95	57	47
Drug Related Transaction	39	49	68	48
Other	35	63	97	112
Gang/Organized Crime Related	31	93	83	60
Robbery	27	21	43	28

3.1.2 Weapons of homicide

weapon	2019	2020	2021	2022
Handgun	163	299	339	259
Cutting/Stabbing	71	92	78	108
Hands, fists, etc.	32	40	36	33
Blunt Instrument	17	13	13	9
Strangulation/Asphyxiation	16	10	13	9
Other	12	7	6	18
Fire	8	7	3	2

3.1.3 Age of shooting victims

VIC_AGE_GROUP	2019	2020	2021	2022
0-18	67	133	156	158
18-24	272	576	601	482
25-44	520	1069	1083	895
45-64	97	157	157	165
65+	7	12	13	14
Total	963	1947	2010	1714

3.1.4 Age of shooters

PERP_AGE_GROUP	2019	2020	2021	2022
<18	53	77	95	128
18-24	191	297	336	377
25-44	250	428	487	484
45-64	37	72	40	82
65+	3	3	3	3
Unknown	429	1070	1049	640
Total	963	1947	2010	1714

3.2 Location

3.2.1 Neighborhood safety

While being overall safe compared to other major US cities, NYC has several areas with a high rate of shootings. For example, among police precincts, Precinct 73 experienced 289 lethal and non-lethal shootings in 2020-2022. With 89 thousand residents living in the precinct, the shooting victimization rate was 107 shootings per 100,000 people.

Gun violence is also concentrated in the small number of precincts. Half of all shooting victimizations occurred in 14 precincts where live 20% of New Yorkers.

Data: nyc_precincts_shootings

The chart and the table below show the ten most and least violent precincts in terms of shooting victims in 2020-2022.

Data: nyc_selected_precincts_shootings

Most violent				Least violent
Precinct	Shooting victimization rate	Shooting victims in 2020-2022	Pop.	Precinct	Shooting victimization rate	Shooting victims in 2020-2022	Pop.
Precinct 73	107.69	289	89452	Precinct 1	2.60	6	77065
Precinct 48	79.46	205	85999	Precinct 62	2.19	13	197768
Precinct 25	72.21	110	50776	Precinct 68	2.03	8	131083
Precinct 40	69.61	204	97687	Precinct 19	1.79	11	204919
Precinct 32	66.74	161	80405	Precinct 17	1.65	4	80755
Precinct 42	65.64	181	91915	Precinct 111	1.59	6	125488
Precinct 41	61.91	99	53305	Precinct 123	1.58	5	105738
Precinct 44	55.67	258	154472	Precinct 122	1.39	6	143958
Precinct 81	54.48	126	77096	Precinct 112	1.09	4	122383
Precinct 75	53.52	327	203661	Precinct 66	1.06	6	188852

3.2.2 Precinct (un)safety

Data: nyc_precinct_unsafety

3.2.3 Change after the pandemic

Overall, all NYC precincts saw a increase in shooting victims in the postpandemic period compare to the period before, with a single exception of Precinct 122 that had 7 shootings in 2017-2019 and only 6 shootings in 2020-2022. On the average, all others precincts had 2-3 times more shootings. However, many of them had a low base rate, so in the absolute terms this increase was not that bad. For example, Manhattan precinct 14 had only one shooting during three years before the pandemic. During and after 2020, it had 34 shootings. While the 34x growth seems alarming, the resulting shooting rate does not make to the top 10 most violent precincts in NYC.

Data: nyc_precincts_pre_post

3.2.4 Pockets of gun violence before and after the pandemic

Data: nyc_census_blocks_conc_pre and nyc_census_blocks_conc_post

3.2.5 Days without shootings

3.3 Police and CJ

3.3.1 Police stepped back

During the pandemic, the adult arrest rate (all arrests per 100,000) fell to the lowest level since 1990.

The adult violent crime arrest rate (adult arrests for violent crimes per 100,000) did not increase as fast the violent crime did. From 2018 to 2022, violent crimes increased by 33% while violent crime arrest did by 25%. There were .45 violent arrests for every violent crime in 2022, the lowest level since 2006 and down from .48 in 2018 (the highest level since 1990).

3.3.2 Enforcement is back and is having an effect

Arrests for murder and nonnegligent manslaughter are up to a 365-day rolling average of 147 arrests per month, up from 88 in the summer of 2020. Starting in July 2022, murders began to decline. Murder arrests increased from 966 in 2019 to 1,618 in 2022. In 2023, there are 4.4 murder arrests per every murder, the highest ratio since 1993.

3.3.2.1 Arrests for felony firearms are up to a 365-day rolling average of 147

#### Conviction Rate for Felony Firearm Arrests

3.3.2.2 Incarceration Rate for Felony Firearm Arrests

3.3.3 Clearance rates

Clearance rates: murder and shooting

3.3.3.1 Clearance rate for homicides and gun homicides in precincts

NB: only precincts with a considerable number of homicides (at least 20 homicides or 10 gun homicides during 2017-2022) are shown.